US forecasters see Ukraine’s corn exports falling 39% as Russia bombs ports

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts a significant 39% decline in Ukraine's corn exports for the 2026-27 season, estimating that shipments will decrease to 14 million tonnes. Wheat exports are also expected to fall by 26%, reaching a total of 10.8 million tonnes. The USDA attributes this decline to Russia's ongoing attacks on Ukraine's Odesa ports, which handle nearly 90% of the country's grain exports.

This forecast aligns with Ukraine's own warnings about the expected export drop. The USDA's assessment, based on an agency with no direct interest in Ukraine's budget, emphasizes the amount of grain stranded at the ports rather than the ships unable to sail. The main evidence of this disruption is the surge in grain stocks in Ukraine, with corn stocks expected to increase by over tenfold to 13.5 million tonnes and wheat stocks more than double to 8.2 million tonnes.

While Ukraine has storage capacity for grain and oilseeds, it may still require additional temporary storage space of 10 to 12 million tonnes to manage the corn harvest if the Black Sea disruptions persist. Almost all grain exports pass through Odesa, and Russia has been targeting the city's three deepwater ports and the ships that depart from there.

Missile strikes on a Turkish-owned grain carrier and a drone attack on a corn ship bound for Greece have highlighted the severity of the situation. The land routes of rail, road, and the Danube are insufficient to compensate for the lost throughput, causing traders to pull back from purchasing grain that has no viable shipping route.

Agriculture is the largest export earner for Ukraine, contributing more than half of the country's total goods export revenue last year. For Ukrainian farmers, the USDA's forecast highlights a potential harvest that may not find buyers due to the lack of export opportunities.