Strait of Hormuz Traffic Sank To Just Six Vessels Monday

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to its lowest levels in over two months, with only six commodity vessels passing through on Monday, according to recent shipping data. This significant decline comes as hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal have faded and security concerns have escalated due to recent attacks on ships and threats targeting maritime trade in the region.

The 10-day average for vessel traffic at Hormuz was 11 ships last week, but the number has since dropped to just six, down from a recent 10-day average of 11 ships. Outbound traffic consisted of two vessels, while four entered the Persian Gulf, bringing the total commercial crossings to five. Among the inbound ships were two empty product tankers, an LNG carrier, and a tanker carrying residual fuel.

In contrast, traffic at Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, remained steady at around 24 vessels per day, compared to the 10-day average. The decline at Hormuz is attributed to increased security concerns, particularly after a string of ship attacks and threats from Iran-aligned groups like the Houthis, who have targeted ships in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

For energy markets to stabilize, traffic at Hormuz would need to surge back to around 80 to 100 ships per day, which would be close to pre-war levels. Bank of America's head of commodities and derivatives research, Francisco Blanch, has warned of the dire situation, noting that only 5 to 10 ships currently pass through the Strait of Hormuz per day, a mere fraction of the roughly 140 vessels that transited the area before the war.