Oil: Strait of Hormuz risk premium – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s energy team notes fading hopes for a US–Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, driving Brent toward USD 90 and gas oil to nearly USD 1,350 per ton. Drone attacks on refineries in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Libya and tight diesel supply add to the risk premium.
Commerzbank's energy team warns that the chances of a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are dwindling, pushing Brent crude to nearly $90 per barrel and gas oil close to $1,350 per ton. Drone attacks on refineries in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Libya and a tight diesel supply contribute to the risk premium. Even though the European market isn't directly impacted, it faces tighter global diesel supply.
The price of Brent crude surged 5% this morning, reaching its highest level since late July. Gas oil price rose even more, climbing nearly 10% and trading at just under $1,350 per ton for the first time since April. The gasoil crack spread has climbed back above $70 per barrel. Reports of refinery outages are further exacerbating the situation.
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