How Climate Change is Reshaping Africa's Malaria Risk

Malaria eradication efforts in sub-Saharan Africa have traditionally concentrated on West and Central Africa, where the disease is most prevalent. The WHO African Region accounts for 95% of global malaria cases and deaths, with Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Niger accounting for the majority of deaths. Children under 5 years old make up 76% of these deaths.

To combat this, the global health body recommends using the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine in regions with moderate to high transmission rates. However, recent funding cuts are jeopardizing malaria control efforts in many endemic countries.

A new study in Nature reveals that climate change is altering the malaria risk landscape in Africa. Temperatures between 25°C and 34°C are most conducive to malaria transmission, which has historically been most prevalent in tropical regions of West and Central Africa. However, rising temperatures are making parts of southern Africa and high-elevation areas of East Africa increasingly suitable for malaria transmission. At the same time, regions in West Africa are becoming too hot for optimal transmission.

This shift could have significant implications for malaria control efforts in Africa. While West and Central Africa may benefit from a small, unplanned assist from climate change, East and Southern Africa, which have historically been lower-burden areas, could face a growing new threat. This could potentially undo hard-won gains in malaria prevention and elimination. The study emphasizes that African health systems must adapt to this evolving threat to maintain momentum in the fight against malaria.