Euro: Rangebound against US Dollar as volatility sinks – ING
Chris Turner at ING observes that EUR/USD realised volatility continues to decline, with one-year volatility matching lows from November 2024.
ING analyst Chris Turner notes that the EUR/USD pair has seen a decline in realised volatility, with one-year volatility hitting its lowest point in November 2024. This calm market environment is unlikely to change before mid-September, as central bankers around the world return from their summer breaks. Turner warns that European investors with underhedged US assets may need to increase their dollar hedge ratios if the US dollar weakens.
EUR/USD is expected to remain within the 1.1515-1.1560 range today. Although gold is correcting and approaching the $4,300 level, the US dollar remains strong and US Treasury yields are rising across the curve, causing global sovereign bonds to sell off. In the oil market, diesel is showing a different trend, with the US diesel crack spread reaching an intraday record of over $102.00.
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