Drought, extreme heat and rain bombs: Southeast Asia braces for prolonged pain of incoming Super El Niño

Southeast Asian nations are bracing for the potential impacts of a powerful El Niño event, dubbed a "Super El Niño" by experts. This extreme weather phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific, could lead to drought, extreme heat, and agricultural disruption across the region. Farmers like Surachai Parunram, a Thai rice and sugarcane grower, have been dealing with increasingly unpredictable weather patterns for years, and anticipate the upcoming El Niño may be the most severe on record.

The Climate Change and Disaster Center at Rangsit University warns that the super El Niño is occurring on a planet already warmed by 1.4-1.5°C, making the impacts far more severe than past events. The WMO reports that the current El Niño is already developing in the Pacific and is expected to strengthen rapidly, with sea-surface temperatures forecast to reach around 2°C above normal during July to September.

This could surpass even the record-setting 1997-1998 event. Thailand, in particular, faces significant risks to its agriculture, water supplies, and energy sector due to the super El Niño. The delayed rainy season could lead to damaging "rain bombs" in the form of severe storms, while reduced rainfall may strain farms, reservoirs, and hydropower systems.

The region's major commodities, including rice and palm oil, could also see production losses, potentially driving up food prices at a time when consumers are already facing economic pressures. El Niño's impacts are expected to extend beyond agriculture, affecting fisheries, hydropower, and livelihoods in Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Myanmar.