Chile’s copper output to fall 2.6% in 2026, says Cochilco

Chile's copper output is expected to decline by 2.6% in 2026, according to the state copper commission Cochilco. This forecast, released on Tuesday, is lower than the expected production of 5.27 million metric tons. The reduction is attributed to weak performance at state miner Codelco and BHP's Chilean operations. The decline is primarily due to poor results in the first half of the year, with production dropping at Codelco, BHP's Escondida and Spence mines, and several other operations facing structural limitations.

Despite this, Cochilco anticipates a partial recovery in the second half of 2026, driven by improvements at Codelco's El Teniente and Rajo Inca mines, as well as normalized operations at Teck's Quebrada Blanca and Capstone Copper's Mantoverde. The agency also expects better ore and water conditions at Collahuasi, a joint venture owned by Anglo American, Glencore, and a Japanese consortium.

Los Pelambres, operated by Antofagasta, will further contribute to the 2027 recovery. For 2027, Cochilco predicts Chilean copper output will rise to 5.55 million tons, bolstered by the low comparison base and gradual recovery of operations. Main contributors to the rebound will be Codelco, Quebrada Blanca, Escondida, Collahuasi, Los Pelambres, and Mantoverde.

Cochilco has also raised its forecast for the average copper price in 2026 to $5.95 per pound, maintaining its estimate for 2027 at $5.10 per pound. The commission cites strong global demand and persistent supply constraints as the reasons for the tight market.