Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Plan Stalls One Year After Washington Breakthrough

One year after signing a provisional peace agreement in Washington D.C., US, Armenian, and Azerbaijani officials remain hopeful about stability and prosperity in the South Caucasus. However, progress toward implementing the joint declaration has been slow. On August 8, the anniversary of the declaration's signing, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated Washington's commitment to the deal during a statement.

The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) is a key initiative, with recent accomplishments including railway surveying and an $201 million Trans-Caspian Enterprise Fund. TRIPP is seen as a crucial link in the Trans-Caspian Trade Route, promoting commercial opportunities for the US and fostering peace after South Caucasus disputes.

Both Azerbaijan's Ilham Aliyev and Armenia's Nikol Pashinyan praised TRIPP's potential, with Aliyev noting that US-Azerbaijani relations are at their highest in 34 years. However, many critical details of TRIPP, including security, customs procedures, and financing, remain unresolved. The ongoing US-Iran conflict adds uncertainty, as Iran opposes TRIPP due to concerns over trade impetus.

While Armenian officials seek additional investors, no firm commitments have been made. A peace treaty finalization remains uncertain, with Azerbaijan demanding constitution amendment recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh sovereignty, a condition Pashinyan sees as achievable but politically challenging. Armenia plans a constitutional referendum, but no amendments have been proposed or discussed yet.