Arabica coffee rallies to three-week high while raw sugar hovers near 10-month peak

Arabica coffee prices on ICE reached a three-week high on Tuesday due to worries about declining certified stockpiles and a catastrophic earthquake in Colombia, the second-largest arabica producer. Raw sugar prices approached a 10-month peak. ICE arabica coffee shares increased by 2.9% to $3.2285 per pound, hitting a three-week peak of $3.2755 per pound.

Certified stocks were at 242,673 60kg bags, the lowest since late 2023, according to exchange data. Commodity adviser GSX Commodities noted that certified stocks are typically the trade's final safety net, and the current levels fall significantly short of providing adequate protection.

The earthquake, the most powerful in decades, resulted in over 160 deaths in Colombia's coffee-growing region. Robusta coffee rose by 0.9% to $3,829 per metric ton. Raw sugar prices climbed 0.7% to 16.58 cents per pound, having previously reached a 10-month high of 16.63 cents per pound. Sugar benefited from hot, dry weather in the European Union and a year-on-year drop in Brazilian exports, although indications have emerged that recent production in Brazil's top grower has been abundant.

Physical sugar broker Deepcore explained that June (Brazil centre-south sugar crush) figures were significantly lower than expected, but the season-to-date crush remains ahead of last year, and the market is aware that the last six weeks in the field have been productive.

Indian sugar producer shares declined after Reuters reported that the government is contemplating restrictions on sugarcane usage for ethanol production next season. White sugar rose by 0.1% to $506.70 per ton, after peaking at $511 a ton in April 2025. Ice London cocoa fell by 2.9% to £4,166 a ton, trading within the past week's range. New York cocoa experienced a decrease of 3.2% to $5,740 a ton.