Why the Rhine drought is bad news for Germany’s recovery

The Rhine River, a vital artery for Germany's industrial goods, is experiencing critically low water levels due to an ongoing drought. At one of the river's shallowest points, Kaub, located between Mainz and Koblenz, the water level measured around 16 centimeters on Monday, according to the Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration.

This level is dangerously low, as standard commercial vessels typically require at least 40 centimeters at this point to navigate safely. Ship operators have consequently reduced their cargo capacity significantly, often to as little as one-fifth of normal levels.

The issue extends beyond the Middle Rhine, a 130-kilometer stretch between Mainz and Bonn, which is the narrowest and shallowest section of the river. Areas around Cologne, Düsseldorf, Duisburg-Ruhrort, and Emmerich are also witnessing historic lows. Authorities fear the Rhine may become impassable at Kaub before the end of the week, effectively splitting the river into two sections for commercial traffic.

This drought poses a severe threat to Germany's economy, which has been struggling with weak growth, high energy costs, and fading industrial competitiveness. Despite its reliance on rivers and waterways for transporting goods, the Rhine accounts for only about 5% of the country's total goods transported, most of which are bulk materials like iron ore, coal, sand, and petroleum products. In 2024, this amounted to 173 million tons out of 3.28 billion tons of goods transported across Germany.

Experts estimate that for every 30 days of low water on the Rhine, Germany's industrial production could decline by about 1%. With the German Economic Institute predicting a 0.4% drop in GDP, which would effectively cancel out the year's economic growth of 0.5%, the situation is dire. The steel, chemicals, and energy sectors are particularly vulnerable to this disruption.

The BDB's Schwanen warned that the Rhine could become un-navigable along its entire length, effectively dividing it into two sections. This would force shipping companies to offload cargo onto trucks and freight rail services, leading to severe congestion and higher costs on land. German states, including Baden-Württemberg, have introduced measures to ease truck movement restrictions on Sundays to mitigate congestion.

Scientists attribute the frequency and severity of such low-water events to climate change. The Rhine and other major European rivers have historically benefited from meltwater from Alpine snow and glaciers, but as these glaciers recede due to rising temperatures, this natural buffer is diminishing. According to projections, severe low-water events like the 2018 drought could occur every five to ten years by mid-century.