USD/CHF Price Forecast: Struggles below 0.8100 as bears eye 50-SMA pivotal support

The USD/CHF currency pair has been struggling to gain any significant support and has been under pressure below the 0.8100 level during the initial half of the European trading session on Monday. The recent poor US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report added to the bearish sentiment, as it signaled a lower likelihood of an imminent interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

This, in turn, is expected to weaken the US Dollar (USD), thereby capping the USD/CHF pair's upside potential. Despite this, some investors are still considering the possibility of a Fed rate increase by the end of the year due to inflation risks caused by energy supply disruptions. Geopolitical uncertainties also continue to hinder aggressive bearish bets on the USD, limiting losses for the USD/CHF pair.

The market's attention is now directed towards the upcoming release of US inflation figures, which will provide fresh insights into the Fed's future policy direction, ultimately impacting the demand for USD. From a technical standpoint, the USD/CHF pair is currently trading below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July rally, but bears are waiting for a break below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before initiating new bearish bets.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, indicating that upside momentum is still tentative. Consequently, a decisive break below the 50-day SMA could serve as a crucial trigger for USD/CHF bears and may lead to a decline towards a dense Fibonacci support band between the 38.2% retracement at 0.8037 and the 61.8% level at 0.7932, prior to reaching structural floors at 0.7857 and 0.7761.