The psychological factors associated with acting on a conspiracy theory

A new study published in the British Journal of Social Psychology reveals that people's actions on conspiracy theories can vary significantly based on the strength and relevance of their beliefs. The researchers found that the likelihood a person acts on a conspiracy theory depends on how certain they are about the belief, how important they think it is, and how useful it is for their daily decisions.

These findings show that specific qualities of conspiracy beliefs can shape how they translate into real-world behavior. Conspiracy beliefs are notions that a small group secretly works against society's well-being, and past research suggests these beliefs may lead to actions like avoiding vaccines or supporting certain political candidates.

However, the general relationship between believing in a conspiracy and taking action is weak. Assistant Professor Javier Granados Samayoa of Texas Christian University explained that meta-analyses often show an inconsistent pattern when examining the connection between conspiracy beliefs and behavior. Some studies indicate a strong relationship, while others show a weak one.

To explore why this inconsistency exists, Granados Samayoa and co-author Dolores Albarracín developed a framework centered on belief strength. This term refers to how people evaluate and understand their own thoughts. The researchers identified three key qualities influencing the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and behavior: the certainty with which people hold the belief, its importance to their decision-making, and its perceived actionability.

The study examined these qualities through three separate experiments. In the first study, 1,959 participants responded to questions about their belief in the great replacement conspiracy theory. The authors measured the certainty and importance of this belief and how actionable it was for participants. They also assessed attitudes toward voting for politicians who support strict immigration policies.

The results showed that people who were highly certain about their belief and saw it as important and useful were more likely to hold positive attitudes towards anti-immigration actions. The second study involved 2,572 adults in the United States, focusing on conspiracy theories surrounding COVID-19 vaccines. Participants rated the importance and actionability of their beliefs and their attitudes toward vaccinations.

They also reported whether they had received at least one vaccine dose. This study confirmed the researchers' framework, as belief in vaccine conspiracies was linked to negative attitudes toward vaccinations, which in turn predicted a lower likelihood of getting vaccinated. The negative association between conspiracy beliefs and vaccine attitudes was strongest when the issue was deemed highly important, and actionability amplified this effect.

The third study involved 1,551 participants focused on a deep state conspiracy theory, claiming government officials were illegally undermining Donald Trump. Researchers measured the certainty, importance, and perceived actionability of this belief, as well as attitudes toward political actions like donating to a campaign or sharing information online.

Three months later, the authors followed up with participants to gauge if they had engaged in those specific political behaviors. The study replicated the patterns seen in the previous two, with belief in the deep state conspiracy theory predicting positive attitudes towards supportive political actions.