Russia’s Missile Machine Is Running Hot — and Ukraine May Not Get a Break, HUR Says

Ukraine's military intelligence deputy chief warns that Russia's missile campaign against Ukraine shows no signs of slowing down, despite the country hitting record levels of ballistic strikes. Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated to RBC-Ukraine that Russia is unlikely to cease its strikes, as Moscow continues to surpass production targets and shift resources to more effective weapons.

Skibitskyi emphasized that Russia's ability to maintain its current rate of attacks would depend on its production volumes. In July, Russia launched a record 377 ballistic and cruise missiles at Ukraine, including Iskander-M ballistic missiles, S-400 system-launched missiles, and Zircon hypersonic missiles. Out of the 126 ballistic missiles fired, only 36 were intercepted, highlighting the challenges Ukraine faces in defending against the barrage.

Russia is exceeding production targets for several key missile systems, with its main missile types currently being produced at 110-120% of planned monthly levels. The country has already fulfilled its annual production targets for Zircon and upgraded Oniks missiles, producing 33 Zircons and 60 Oniks missiles in seven months. Russia has halted production of Kinzhal and Kh-32 missiles due to accuracy issues, reallocating resources to other ballistic missiles.

Ukraine's air-defense efforts may be further complicated by Russia's shift toward turbojet-powered UAVs, which require different interceptors or short-range air-defense systems. Additionally, Russia is accelerating the development of its own satellite communications network, Rassvet, a Russian analogue of Starlink, which could provide Russia with a similar capability once a full constellation is deployed.