Romanian Leu: Rating relief but NBR stays cautious – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Romania’s unchanged Baa3 rating at Moody’s and prior Fitch decision should ease pressure after recent ROMGBs underperformance.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expresses relief over Romania’s unchanged Baa3 rating from Moody’s and Fitch, despite recent underperformance in the Romanian bond market (ROMGBs). He anticipates the National Bank of Romania (NBR) will maintain rates at 6.50% and expects a rate cut only in January 2027. Taborsky predicts limited EUR/RON movements near 5.25, but notes a potential short-term rally in the Romanian Leu (RON) as relief from the rating may encourage buyers and carry trades.
The NBR is expected to keep rates unchanged, and the RON is currently trading just below 5.25 against the euro.
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