Morgan Stanley cuts Global-e rating to equal-weight, raises price target to $44

Morgan Stanley has lowered its rating for Global-e Online from Overweight to Equal-weight, but has increased its price target to $44. The bank believes the market now accurately reflects the company's steady growth and competitive position. Morgan Stanley's valuation model has been extended to 2028, incorporating the impact of the recent Passport acquisition.

Analysts maintain that Global-e remains undervalued relative to its growth prospects, but future gains will likely hinge on significant growth in Managed Markets and clearer disclosure of take rates. The firm expects second-quarter gross merchandise volume to exceed guidance by 1-2%, driven by favorable factors like Alo's performance, merchant promotions, global sporting events, and favorable exchange rates.

They anticipate third-quarter results to align with expectations as temporary tailwinds dissipate. Morgan Stanley has also factored the Passport acquisition into its estimates, projecting $25 million in quarterly revenue for 2026 and beyond. The acquisition is expected to be neutral to slightly positive for adjusted EBITDA, with 2026 revenue rising to $1.32 billion and 2027 revenue forecasted at $1.77 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase to $286.4 million in 2026, up from $281 million previously. The next key event will be Global-e's August 12 earnings report, as a substantial Managed Markets ramp-up in 2027 could further bolster the stock's upside potential.