How climate change is reshaping Africa's malaria risk

For decades, malaria eradication efforts in sub-Saharan Africa have primarily targeted West and Central Africa, where the disease is most prevalent. The WHO African Region accounts for 95% of global malaria cases and deaths. Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Niger bear the brunt of these statistics, with children under 5 accounting for 76% of deaths.

The RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine, effective against the Plasmodium falciparum parasite responsible for 95% of infections in Africa, has shown promise in reducing mortality among children in pilot programs in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi. However, recent funding cuts threaten these control efforts, with over half of malaria-endemic countries reporting disruptions to services.

A new study published in Nature suggests that climate change is reshaping malaria risk in Africa. Researchers found that rising temperatures are making some parts of southern Africa and high-elevation areas of East Africa increasingly suitable for malaria transmission, while West Africa becomes too hot. This redistribution of risk could have significant implications for malaria control efforts in Africa, with the potential to challenge hard-won gains in some regions and create new threats in others.

Despite being a low contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, Africa remains highly vulnerable to climate change, posing risks to economies, infrastructure, and health systems. To adapt to this evolving threat, governments, health systems, and communities must prepare for more aggressive anti-malaria programs in cooler areas where risk is rising, while also addressing funding gaps, drug and insecticide resistance, and weak health systems.