How AI is rewriting the rules of war and peace

As artificial intelligence becomes integrated into military systems, the dynamics of war and peace are undergoing a seismic shift. The Global Peace Index 2026, released by the Institute for Economics and Peace, reveals that recorded drone attacks surged from 364 in 2018 to over 42,000 in 2025. While not all drones function autonomously, the trend underscores the growing influence of AI in modern conflicts.

Notably, the interval between detecting a target and launching an attack has plummeted from nearly a full day to mere five seconds in some systems, granting a significant military edge but also introducing a new layer of risk. The speed at which algorithms operate poses a serious challenge to diplomacy, as it may outpace the political processes needed for verification, interpretation, and negotiation.

In the Israel-Gaza conflict, AI-driven systems like Habsora and Lavender have been employed to identify potential militants, analyzing vast amounts of data and generating potential targets in mere seconds. Despite the need for human oversight, these systems can accelerate decision-making to the point where leaders may have only seconds to accept or reject the system’s recommendations.

This raises concerns about the illusion of human control over military operations, as AI increasingly shapes the conduct of warfare. The rapid adoption of AI by militaries worldwide suggests that lessons learned from early adopters, such as Israel, will likely be closely studied by other nations. The AI rivalry between China and the United States is often compared to the technological competition between Washington and Moscow during the Cold War.

As the United States redefines its Gulf strategy with the emergence of an AI alliance, the strategic importance of the region continues to shape US calculations.