Has the army turned the page on control of western Sudan?

Pope Leo XIV has implored for an "immediate ceasefire" in Sudan following Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan's decree to persist with the ongoing conflict and wipe out the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) by the year's end. In an address on Sunday, Pope Leo pleaded for the international community's backing for immediate ceasefire efforts, praying for relief for the suffering and conversion of violent hearts, and bestowing a much-needed peace.

This call arose days after the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) announced their intent to defeat the RSF by year's end, a goal deemed too ambitious by analysts due to the paramilitary's stronghold in western Sudan.

Gen Al Burhan has turned down mediation attempts by regional and international powers, vowing to continue the war despite calls to restore civilian rule. Conversely, RSF leader Gen Mohamed Dagalo seems more receptive to negotiations, though his intentions are often suspect due to his desire for legitimacy. Both the Sudanese army and RSF are under sanctions for alleged war crimes, with commanders facing additional penalties.

Sudan's military leadership is also under scrutiny for planning to integrate Islamist extremist militias loyal to former President Omar Al Bashir's regime, who have an incentive to prolong the war until Islamists achieve political resurgence after their 2018-2019 overthrow.

Pope Leo expressed his growing concern over the tragic situation in Sudan, particularly in Al Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan state. He implored for humanitarian corridors to aid civilians amidst severe limitations in access to food and healthcare. The UN's human rights chief, Volker Turk, had previously warned of a looming human rights catastrophe due to escalating violence.

The four-year war has triggered one of the world's most severe humanitarian crises, displacing approximately 14 million people. Originating from Al Burhan and Dagalo's dispute, fighting has since engulfed the country beyond Darfur, with the RSF controlling parts of Kordofan and Blue Nile regions while the SAF governs the capital and northern, central, and eastern Sudan.

Each faction operates under separate administrations, with the army-aligned one headquartered in Port Sudan and the RSF's in Nyala, Darfur.