Govt maps 18 high-risk counties ahead of October El Niño rains

NAIROBI, Kenya – The government has identified 18 counties across Kenya as high-risk areas ahead of the anticipated El Niño rains in October. These counties have been placed under heightened alert and are being monitored by multi-agency emergency teams. The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has forecasted an 81 percent chance of a strong El Niño event, with a 97 percent probability that its effects will persist into early next year.

The National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) has pinpointed counties in the Coast, Lake Basin, Rift Valley, and North Eastern regions as the most vulnerable. Coast counties like Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa, and Kwale face risks of flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion, and infrastructure damage. The Interior Ministry has warned that some communities in these regions could be displaced if the anticipated rains materialize.

In the Lake Basin, counties such as Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori are also considered high-risk due to the potential for flooding, landslides, and increased disease outbreaks. Kisumu, a high-risk urban center, may face additional challenges from blocked drainage systems and disruptions to essential services.

The Rift Valley region, including Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot, and Narok, is vulnerable to drought, flash floods, and landslides. This could lead to livestock losses and food insecurity. North Eastern Kenya, specifically Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera, faces water shortages, drought, livestock losses, poor pasture, and food insecurity.

These assessments aim to guide the deployment of emergency resources and prioritize response planning before the onset of the heavy rains. The government is taking proactive measures to mitigate potential impacts, including flooding, infrastructure damage, disease outbreaks, drought, and displacement. The government’s risk assessment is not final, and additional areas may be included if experts deem them vulnerable.