Drought and the war in Ukraine changed what families in Kenya could afford to eat

The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a surge in global energy and food markets. Crude oil and natural gas prices skyrocketed, while exports of wheat, maize, sunflower oil and fertilizers from Russia and Ukraine were disrupted, leading to record global food prices. As an importer of 92% of its wheat, Kenya was severely impacted.

This reporter worked with a team in Mukuru, Nairobi's largest informal settlement, to examine how the conflict altered Kenyans' ability to afford food and cooking fuel. In 2022, food inflation in Kenya nearly doubled from 8.9% to 15.4%, driven by rising global food and transport costs and a multiyear drought that decreased harvests in the region.

Researchers examined data from families' smart meters and surveyed households to understand dietary and cooking changes. PayGo Energy, which allows customers to pay for gas in smaller increments, was used by one-third of Kenyans. In Mukuru, families reduced their cooking with gas from 19 days per month in 2021 to 8 days in 2022, cutting total cooking time from 12.8 to 8.3 hours monthly.

Ninety-three percent of survey participants reported altering the food they consumed, 63% skipped more meals, and 30% cooked with gas less frequently. One resident explained, "I have shifted to rice and spaghetti because it takes less time to cook and saves gas." The study underscores the need for policies and safety nets to protect against food insecurity, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical conflicts and climate change.