Dax currently: Important pause in the Dax – Will the next wave follow then?

A wave of important company figures and highly regarded economic indicators has passed. The next wave is just around the corner - and in between, the German stock market may find some calm. At the start of the new trading week, the Dax remains unchanged at 26,339 points. The German benchmark index has had turbulent weeks behind it.

The strong balance sheet season and the returned prospect that the Iran war will not escalate again have driven the stock market barometer to new record highs. The current record high of 26,446.95 points is within easy reach. The recent increase has been very dynamic. Since mid-July, the Dax has gained more than 1,600 points, with most days having increased trading volume.

During this period, there was only one trading day with a significant decline. The risk therefore remains high that investors will take profits. A similar picture is seen on the US stock market. Trading on Monday could be an important breather for many investors to sort themselves out. There are hardly any market-relevant dates on the agenda on either side of the Atlantic.

In the US, the balance sheet season is almost over. More than 80 percent of the companies listed in the broad S&P 500 index have already presented their figures. Here, various relevant publications will follow in the next few days. With Eon, RWE, Brenntag, and Thyssen-Krupp, around four industrial conglomerates from Essen will present new figures.

Hannover Rück, Salzgitter, and Tui will also open their books. The most important stock market date will follow on Wednesday afternoon: the new US inflation figures. They will provide an approximation of whether the price pressure in the US - inflation has been above the target value for five years - continues to set in broadly.

From this, it can be deduced how likely it is that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. The Fed has a dual mandate. In addition to price stability, it must also ensure full employment. However, the job market is significantly weakening, as shown by the employment report published last Friday. If the Fed were to raise interest rates due to high inflation, it would put additional pressure on the job market.

Investors have therefore already slightly adjusted their expectations for imminent interest rate steps, as shown by a look at the Fed Watch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). An interest rate pause at the next Fed meeting in September is now considered the basic scenario. These adjusted expectations will be put to a new test by the new inflation data.

If interest rate hikes do not materialize, this is likely to be positive for stocks. This is because a higher interest rate level increases the financing costs for companies. Especially growth-oriented companies will be burdened. Fixed-rate investments such as bonds also become more attractive in comparison. The biggest uncertainty remains the situation in the Iran war, specifically with regard to the potential opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait, through which a significant part of Europe's energy supplies passes, is de facto still not passable. It is difficult to assess how likely a soon agreement between the warring parties is. Even less can be reliably said about whether this agreement will then last sustainably. The uncertainty drives oil prices slightly upwards at the start of the week.

Brent oil for delivery in October costs just under $84. The European natural gas contract (TTF) reaches the level at which it was already quoted a week ago. Individual values in focus Gea: The machine and plant manufacturer, which rose to the Dax last year, has presented figures within expectations. Gea has also confirmed the outlook.

The stock confirms its recent upward trend and reaches the highest level since spring. Aumovio: Bernstein experts have upgraded the automotive supplier to "outperform". The stock listed in the MDax index of medium-sized companies rises by four percent. More: The SAP stock is a hot speculation, but no gamble.