British Pound Sterling borrows its rally from American payrolls

The British Pound Sterling has rallied, driven by American payrolls. The currency has climbed to 1.3500, marking its best level since mid-July. The market is awaiting confirmation on whether this level will hold or break. The Pound has gained nearly two cents since its low near 1.3300 in early August. However, the majority of this increase has occurred outside of London, where there has been no significant economic news for two weeks.

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls data missed expectations, causing the Dollar index to reach its weakest level since early June. Despite this, the Pound has rallied because the opposite side of the quote has stopped functioning, not because of strong demand. The Bank of England has kept its interest rates at 3.75% since July, with a 6-3 split in favor of raising them to 4.00%.

This has led to a gradual shift toward a 4% Bank Rate by October. The U.S. calendar remains crowded, with July consumer prices, producer prices, retail sales, and Fed speeches scheduled for the week. The only British economic data expected is the preliminary second-quarter GDP reading, which is anticipated to show slower growth.

The Pound's rally is conditional, relying on the American tightening odds, and could be reversed if the Bank of England raises rates further.