Bernstein’s Bullish Outlook Sends Paytm To Fresh 52-Week High

Paytm's stock surged nearly 10.67% during intraday trading on BSE, achieving a new 52-week high of ₹1,594.80. The share price dipped slightly from the intraday peak, closing at ₹1,588.40 after 15:16 IST. Paytm's market capitalization reached ₹1.02 lakh crore ($10.6 billion) by the end of the day.

Brokers upgraded Paytm's stock to 'Outperform' and increased its price target from ₹1,500 to ₹2,200. With this revised price target, Bernstein forecasts a potential 53% upside from the stock's last closing price of ₹1,441. They expect the UPI Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) to enhance Paytm's net payment margins by 3-4 basis points, leading to a 30% rise in FY30 estimated earnings per share (EPS) compared to earlier forecasts.

The central government's recent amendments to the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007, create a framework for MDR implementation on specified UPI transactions. The ministry clarified that consumers will not pay for UPI payments, and the MDR, if introduced, would apply to a limited set of merchant transactions above a defined threshold at a nominal rate. Bernstein estimates MDR could impact around 50% of UPI transaction value.

Paytm's financial performance saw a 79% YoY increase in consolidated net profit to ₹220 crore in Q1 FY27, up from ₹123 crore in the same period last year. Operating revenue expanded 28% YoY to ₹2,448 crore, while revenue excluding UPI and PIDF incentives grew 31% YoY. The company reported an all-time-high EBITDA of ₹203 crore, with a 182% YoY rise and an EBITDA margin of 8% in FY27. Since the financial disclosure on July 20, the stock has climbed about ₹100 in value, reflecting a 23% gain year-to-date.