Australian Dollar: Hawkish risk before RBA – Commerzbank
Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank expects the RBA to keep rates unchanged, in line with market pricing, but sees scope for a slightly hawkish tone given high petroleum prices and already reduced hike expectations.
Commerzbank analyst Volkmar Baur anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain interest rates at their current level during their upcoming meeting, despite the recent rise in crude oil prices. Baur notes that while the market has priced in a nearly 99% probability of a rate hold, there is potential for a slightly more hawkish stance given the high petroleum prices and the fact that analysts have already reduced hike expectations.
He believes the medium-term outlook predicts a rate cut, which will keep the Australian Dollar (AUD) under pressure until the market fully incorporates this perspective.
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