The Contests within the Contest in Osun
Postscript by Waziri Adio Since 2014, Osun State has produced some of the most keenly contested governorship elections in the country. But the Osun election is closely monitored not just
The Osun State governorship election of 2014 is considered a significant event in Nigerian politics due to its competitive nature and the potential implications it holds for future elections. The contest attracted the attention of politicians, analysts, and election monitors, making it a bellwether for the upcoming general election. Moreover, the state has become a site for proxy battles as politicians outside the ballot seek influence in the outcome.
The 2014 Osun governorship election was won by the incumbent, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), who had previously won it in 2011. This victory was significant for the APC, as it was led by a merger of opposition parties and posed a serious threat to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). PDP, buoyed by their victory in Ekiti State, aimed to flip Osun State during the 2014 election, which would have been a major blow to the emerging APC and a morale booster for them ahead of the 2015 presidential election.
In the lead-up to the 2026 Osun governorship election, the pattern established in 2014 has continued, with 14 candidates on the ballot and a three-way race between Senator Ademola Adeleke, Bola Oyebamiji of APC, and Dr. Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The three are strong contenders, each with their own backgrounds and political affiliations. Notably, all three were previously associated with the APC before deciding to contest the election.
A crucial aspect of the Osun election is the marginalization of Osun West, a senatorial district that has not produced a governor since 1999. Prior to 2022, Osun West had not had a governor in the state, with Osun Central and Osun East monopolizing the position. The 2026 election may see a subtle contest between Osun West and the other two senatorial districts, with the main parties focusing on correcting the perceived injustice done to Osun West.
This micro-zoning strategy may benefit Adeleke, as the other senatorial districts could choose a governor who would be term-barred in 2030, allowing another candidate from Osun West to run for office.
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