ISW: Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk unlikely to fall in near term
Russian forces have prioritized offensives toward Pokrovsk and Dobropillia in an effort to encircle Ukraine’s so-called fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast from the southwest, but capturing the entire Donbas by the end of the year remains “extremely unrealistic,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its Aug. 7 analysis.
The Institute for the Study of War predicts that Russian forces are unlikely to capture Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk in the near future. Russian forces have been focusing on offensives toward Pokrovsk and Dobropillia to encircle Ukraine's fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast from the southwest. However, capturing the entire Donbas by the end of the year is deemed "extremely unrealistic."
An audio recording released by the Kremlin purportedly captured a conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and a Russian commander. The conversation allegedly claimed that the division had captured several settlements, but doubts were raised as the commander was never specifically identified by name. The ISW believes that the sector is a priority for Russian forces, but the timeline for completing such a large-scale encirclement remains highly unrealistic.
Russian forces have suffered territorial losses in June and July, and their monthly rate of advance in July was still insufficient to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast by Putin's new deadline of December 31, 2026. Ukraine's Rubizh National Guard Brigade reported that Russian forces were increasing preparations for renewed offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction, with advancing toward Dobropillia remaining a primary objective.
Written by urgent.news from New Voice of Ukraine's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
