US economy unexpectedly sheds 23,000 jobs in July; unemployment rate eases to 4.1%

The US economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, according to the Labor Department's employment report released on August 7. This came as a shock, as economists had predicted a gain of 80,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in July, down from 4.2% in June, primarily because 264,000 people exited the labor force. This drop in the labor participation rate reached a near 5.5-year low of 61.4%.

The nonfarm payrolls dropped 23,000 jobs in July, after a downward revision of 20,000 jobs in June. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs after a previous report of 57,000 jobs added in June. The economy added 103,000 fewer jobs in May and June than initially estimated. The downgrades to these months prompted President Donald Trump to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of manipulating the data.

Financial markets priced in a 43.9% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, down from 57% before the jobs report. The Fed had kept its benchmark interest rate within the range of 3.50% to 3.75% earlier in the week. Three members of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee voted for a quarter-percentage-point hike instead.

Next week's inflation data is expected to influence the debate on the Fed's near-term monetary policy outlook. The retail trade sector lost 19,000 jobs, mostly at warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise stores. Financial activities jobs declined by 14,000. Healthcare jobs increased by 22,000, but this was below the monthly average of 36,000 over the past year.

Construction and manufacturing sectors saw little change in employment. The weak payrolls data may reduce the pressure on the Fed to raise rates at its September meeting, but next week's inflation data will likely be the deciding factor.