Trump teased an Iran deal that didn't come, but markets soared. Here’s why it keeps happening

The Trump administration recently aroused excitement over the possibility of the U.S. and Iran reaching an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, causing a decline in oil prices and a surge in stock market values – despite no deal being finalized. This pattern is not unique, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed in the past that the U.S. is near an agreement that would end the ongoing war.

Investors have followed many of these claims with increased investments, anticipating a breakthrough, even though the conflict seems to be escalating and progress in Trump's main objective, preventing Iran's nuclear ambitions, has stagnated. Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, described the market as characterized by "tremendous optimism bias."

The current conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global oil trade, has been a significant source of leverage for Iran. The Iranian ability to effectively seal the strait has led to a global energy supply shock, driving up gas prices, exacerbating inflation, and raising concerns about oil reserves. While some investors believe that diplomacy could lead to peace, they recognize that the future of the strait presents an insurmountable problem.

Iran desires to impose a service fee, whereas the U.S. aims to restore pre-war conditions, international and free waters in the Strait.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC's inquiry for clarification. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed optimism, stating during CNBC's "Squawk Box" that a deal to ensure "freedom of movement" in the strait could be reached within hours. This optimistic remark immediately led to a drop in oil prices, while stocks skyrocketed and bond yields fell, as optimism coincided with an AI-driven tech rally.

However, crude prices remain elevated from prewar levels, as traders alternate between hope for a sustainable solution in the strait and fear of a U.S. military escalation.

Despite Bessent's remarks to CNBC, the market is still caught in a volatile "spiky muddle-through" situation. While Iran and Oman may agree on a limited Hormuz management plan, there is no expectation of a significant, enduring settlement between the U.S. and Iran, which is what traders desire. The administration's optimistic stance was reinforced by Trump's statement on Sunday evening that he had called off a large-scale attack on Iran due to a "deal having been agreed to."

This claim echoed numerous other instances where Trump had threatened to utterly destroy Iran but then backtracked. This fueled stock market gains on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a record high.

On Tuesday, Trump echoed Bessent's optimism, asserting that a deal to reopen the strait could occur as soon as Wednesday or Thursday due to "significant progress." This continued to heighten investors' expectations on Wednesday, prompting the Dow to hit another record high and oil prices to remain stable. This momentum in equities was observed despite Iran's consistent denial of ongoing talks with the U.S. Iran maintains it is in discussions with Oman, a neighboring regional power, to negotiate their own agreement on shipping in the strait.

Trump has dismissed Iran's claims as "duplicitous" and insists that the U.S., which has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, is in full control of the Strait of Hormuz. However, vessel traffic remains far below pre-war averages, with just 20% of the world's oil passing through the waterway.

By Thursday, any hope for an imminent deal on the strait seemed to be temporarily extinguished, as Iranian state media reported a draft proposal that would restrict passage for U.S. and Israeli ships, alongside imposing other constraints. The U.S. government quickly dismissed this draft, insisting that all vessels would have unrestricted access to the Strait of Hormuz.

When asked at the White House about a deal to reopen the strait, Trump acknowledged that "it's sort of open right now," adding, "I think we're doing very well. I'm involved in the negotiation. I think we're doing fine... It could be soon." Iran, which has maintained a defiant stance against the U.S. throughout the war, mocked Trump's messaging, stating, "Massive attack coming… wait, never mind, they want to negotiate."

This "theater diplomacy" was criticized as a failed strategy by Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.