Oil rises amid supply disruption fears following Iran's restrictive draft plan for the Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices dipped below $76.00 for WTI, the US benchmark, on Friday, anticipating a 10% weekly decline. The ongoing talks between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are limiting oil rallies. A report from Iran's state-owned Fars news agency suggested Tehran might ban US and Israeli vessels from the Strait, imposing fees of 5-7% on cargo.

However, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about ending the conflict, stating the Strait was "sort of open" and under US control. Analysts at Rabobank cautioned that global crude inventories remain substantial, with daily consumption dropping between 2-5 mb/d depending on SPR release calls. They warned that these savings in inventories wouldn't last forever.

Rabobank's base case anticipates a slow recovery in crude flows, with Hormuz potentially returning to 50-60% of prewar flows by 2027 and Middle East refinery exports normal by mid-2028. The gap between oil and products prices suggests persistent tightness in the refined product market. WTI Oil, sold on international markets, is a high-quality crude with relatively low gravity and sulfur content.

Its price is influenced by supply and demand, global growth, political instability, OPEC decisions, and the US Dollar's value. The weekly API and EIA inventory reports impact WTI Oil prices, with drops indicating increased demand. OPEC's production quotas decisions often affect WTI Oil prices, with lower quotas tightening supply and higher quotas the opposite.