Oil gains as Strait of Hormuz uncertainty keeps traders on edge

Oil prices surged on Friday as uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz kept traders on edge, according to a Reuters report. Brent crude futures climbed 0.97% to reach $83.29 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate increased 0.83% to $77.93. This rise followed a significant rally on Thursday, with both benchmarks surpassing a $3 increase after Iran signaled that any reopening could involve conditions affecting permitted vessels.

The Strait, crucial to global energy markets, transports about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. Earlier in the week, oil prices had dropped as markets became more optimistic about an agreement to restore shipping. Despite Friday's rebound, both benchmarks were still on track for a weekly decline of around 8%, underscoring the volatile nature of oil markets as traders gauge the prospects for a lasting resolution.

Iran proposed restrictions on US, Israeli, and other hostile vessels, along with potential fees and penalties for ships using the Strait. Iran is also seeking transit fees ranging from 5% to 7% of cargo values, while Oman has reportedly discussed a fee of about 3%. The US stance is against charging ships. These proposals have left market participants questioning whether any reopening would resemble a normal shipping scenario or be a controlled, conditional corridor.

The practical implementation of any agreement could face challenges, including US sanctions and insurance restrictions. Geopolitical risks include ongoing tensions in Yemen, where the Houthi movement claimed to have attacked Saudi deployments in Marib and Hadramout. US President Donald Trump reportedly believed the conflict would soon end, but uncertainty over the Strait's future continues to make energy traders highly sensitive to developments in the region.

For hedge funds and other macro investors, conflicting signals leave oil susceptible to further sharp price swings as positioning adjusts to evolving expectations on supply disruptions, shipping access, and the eventual terms of any ceasefire or transit agreement.