Natural Gas: Higher price forecasts on LNG squeeze – Commerzbank
Norman Liebke at Commerzbank has revised Gas and German power price forecasts higher, citing tighter European storage, increased reliance on LNG and structural constraints on Qatari exports. The phase-out of Russian Gas from 2027 adds upside risk.
Commerzbank's Norman Liebke has updated its Gas and German power price forecasts to reflect a tighter European storage situation, increased reliance on LNG, and structural constraints on Qatari exports. The phase-out of Russian gas by 2027 adds upside potential. Year-end Gas is now forecast at EUR 50 per MWh, up from EUR 45, while German power is expected at EUR 110 per MWh, unchanged from the previous EUR 110.
However, Qatari LNG production will remain restricted by one-fifth over the next three to five years due to partial damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility, despite a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Russian gas imports will also phase out, impacting prices from early 2027 for LNG and autumn 2027 for pipeline gas.
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