Israel as Temporary Refuge or Permanent Home: The Fate of Russia’s Wartime Aliyah

Since the onset of 2022, Israel has welcomed a significant influx of immigrants from the former Soviet Union, with the majority originating from Russia. According to a study conducted from 2019 to 2020, the potential for emigration from Russia at that time was estimated at 100,000-120,000 people. However, this potential was realized much earlier than expected, with a sharp increase in immigration following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

By the end of 2022, around 60,000 new immigrants arrived in Israel from the former Soviet region, with approximately 42,000 (70%) being from Russia. The majority of these immigrants had already intended to leave Russia even before the war began, with about 53% of the surveyed Russians who did not initially plan to emigrate changing their minds once the war started.

The majority of these immigrants planned their move to Israel in advance, rather than being driven by the war. Over the past three years, the number of arrivals from the former Soviet Union has steadily declined, with the largest decrease occurring in 2025 compared to previous years. This decline is attributed to the gradual adaptation of major Russian cities to wartime conditions, rather than a decrease in emigration potential or the emergence of a new war in the Middle East.

Despite this, the majority of the Russian "wartime aliyah" immigrants still plan to stay in Israel, with only about 14% of them viewing Israel as a temporary residence. Therefore, it appears that the majority of those who moved to Israel between 2022 and 2025 will continue to reside there permanently.