Is Japan eyeing Ukraine-style asymmetric warfare against China in defence shift?

Japan's latest defence white paper underscores the country's intent to employ asymmetric warfare techniques, particularly against China, as outlined by international politics professor Christopher Hughes of the University of Warwick. The extensive report, published on Tuesday, highlights the need for Japan Self-Defence Forces to integrate unmanned systems, artificial intelligence (AI), and other advanced technologies amid an evolving security landscape.

According to Hughes, Ukraine's experiences provided Japan with invaluable lessons, emphasizing that a smaller military can effectively counter a larger adversary through rapid technological advancements and cost-effective capabilities. In contrast to last year's white paper, which focused primarily on capability development, the current document presents autonomous systems as a vital component of Japan's broader strategy to adapt to modern warfare.

Chinese authorities have criticized Japan's push for drones, asserting that it aims to compensate for the nation's dwindling population and enhance its fighting capacity while blurring the line between defense and offense, potentially violating Japan's pacifist constitution. Michael Bosack, director of the Parley Policy Initiative, noted that Japan's defense planning has evolved from focusing on acquiring advanced platforms to combat China's military modernization to recognizing the impracticality of keeping up with Beijing's expansion due to economic constraints and demographic pressures.

The Japanese government's record budget of 9 trillion yen (US$57 billion) for the current fiscal year, representing a 3.8% increase from the previous year, reflects this shift. Approximately 100 billion yen is allocated to the Shield coastal defense program, which will establish an integrated network of unmanned surface, aerial, and underwater systems by 2027.

The budget also earmarks increased investment in AI-enabled command and decision-support technologies. The white paper argues that modern warfare demands a robust defense industrial base capable of swiftly integrating commercial innovations into military capabilities. The document underscores the necessity for enhanced cooperation between the military, industry, and startups, as well as accelerated adoption of dual-use technologies.

Foreign policy analyst Bosack emphasized that these changes represent a significant departure from Japan's traditional acquisition system, essential for maintaining a technological edge in a highly competitive security environment.