Iran's regime may be bad, but it is rational

In 2003, the British deputy ambassador in Iran observed a sermon by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in which Iran was harshly criticized for the region's problems. This unexpected outburst puzzled the ambassador, who later discovered that the Ayatollah was emphasizing the even more negative aspects he had not previously mentioned. This early lesson in Iran's complex communication style revealed the regime's method of "horizontal escalation," which differs from a rush towards all-out war.

The Iranian regime's strategy aims to expand the conflict's breadth while avoiding direct confrontations with U.S. forces, preserving face against a more powerful adversary, maintaining diplomatic levers, and paving the way for negotiations. By expanding the conflict to areas such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab El Mandeb strait, and through proxies like the Houthis, Iran has improved its negotiating position and created reversible and tradeable leverage.

This approach has benefited Iran in multiple ways, including reducing the burden of pain on third parties, offering a diplomatic off-ramp with the potential for concessions, and enabling a negotiation that can be presented as a victory under pressure. This tactic has been observed in Iran's past actions during the Iran-Iraq war, and its current behavior continues to display a deliberate effort to build negotiating leverage rather than engage in an existential war.

Although the Iranian regime's actions are unwelcome, they are carefully controlled and incremental, designed to test reaction thresholds and allow for calibration. Despite the regime's hostile behavior, the Iranian people maintain a culture of hospitality and warmth, deserving of better treatment.