Iran Is Playing for Time as Midterms Loom for Trump

As the United States midterm elections draw nearer, Iran is employing a strategic approach to buy more time. Recent developments have indicated that Iran and Oman may soon reach an agreement to reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, but the negotiations face significant hurdles. Tehran proposes to regulate inbound shipping, while Oman would oversee outbound traffic, alongside seeking sanctions relief in exchange for toll-free passage.

However, Washington firmly opposes Iran controlling the shipping lanes, and the shipping industry has expressed concerns over the proposed transit fees and the ongoing U.S. sanctions, making the arrangement potentially unfeasible.

Even if an agreement is finalized, it would primarily address the transits through Hormuz, rather than the broader geopolitical landscape. Concurrently, Saudi Arabia is increasingly entangled in Yemen, following the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers on August 5 and subsequent ballistic missile and drone strikes against Saudi-backed Yemeni forces on August 6.

Riyadh's recent military actions, combined with the creation of a multinational maritime coalition to safeguard the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, have exacerbated the regional tensions.

The previously dormant Saudi-Houthi conflict, frozen since the 2022 truce, is now resurfacing as an active front in the Iran conflict. According to recent reports from CNN, U.S. Central Command has been circulating among military analysts and planners ideas for "creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran." Intelligence sources, however, now assert that the ongoing air campaign is unlikely to compel Tehran into an agreement aligned with President Trump's demands.

The current strategy has failed to yield any positive political outcomes despite the extensive military campaign. Furthermore, U.S. military forces are running low on anti-tank guided missiles (ATACMs) and precision strike missiles, a fact that President Trump has previously denied.

Nonetheless, the absence of military preparedness in the crucial Pacific theater is a growing concern. Iran does not seek to defeat the U.S. military; its primary objective is to prevent President Trump from capitalizing on American military superiority to secure a noticeable victory before the November 3 midterms. Bombarding more Iranian infrastructure is unlikely to force the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to surrender, as U.S. intelligence already acknowledges.

Iran's overarching strategy involves escalating the conflict across multiple fronts, including Hormuz, the Red Sea, Gulf energy infrastructure, proxy attacks on U.S. forces, and the continuous erosion of American interceptor inventories. Each additional front, whether it be Hormuz, the Red Sea, Gulf energy infrastructure, proxy attacks on U.S. forces, or the dwindling U.S. missile stocks, amplifies the political and economic costs of the war for Washington, all without Iran matching U.S. military might.