How SpaceX’s most-feared trading day turned into a 6% rally

On Thursday, SpaceX's stock experienced a surprising turn of events as roughly seven million shares changed hands, resulting in a 6% rally. Despite the anticipation of a selling event due to the expiry of a lockup period, insider and employee shares became eligible to trade. Approximately 20% of the company's shares were set to be sold, doubling the freely traded float overnight.

The stock had already dropped from its post-IPO high and fallen below its initial asking price. However, the initial fears of a mass sell-off never materialized. Instead, the stock steadied and then surged 6% higher, leaving investors puzzled. Some insiders, who had been holding onto their shares for years, opted for a cautious approach.

They had grown accustomed to semiannual buybacks, which provided a steady stream of liquidity. Employees participated in informal support groups, helping them navigate the financial landscape and diversify their newfound wealth. Analysts suggested that the stock's decline was largely anticipated and that investors were taking profits before the lockup expiry.

This event was seen as a healthy transition of ownership from insiders to a broader, more stable public float. Long-term growth managers and event-driven hedge funds saw this as an opportunity to build positions in SpaceX, which was viewed as a generational compounder at a temporarily depressed valuation. The thesis behind SpaceX remained intact, with the company showing roughly 92% year-over-year revenue growth.