Heavy rain forecast for south-east states triggers flood alert for 10 areas

A powerful winter cold front will bring heavy rain and strong winds to southern Australia over the next few days. Victoria has been issued a flood watch for 10 catchments due to the soaking expected on the Victorian ranges. Thunderstorms are also possible in parts of Western Australia, South Australia, and southern inland New South Wales.

A second front will pass over Western Australia on Monday and reach the southeastern states on Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing rain totals to at least 25 millimeters across a large portion of southern Australia. Some areas, such as around Adelaide, may see totals exceed 50 millimeters, while the high country of north-east Victoria could see up to 100 millimeters of rainfall.

A deep low-pressure system associated with the initial front will raise the risk of damaging gusts in multiple states. Winds in Western Australia may reach 80 kilometers per hour, while South Australian coastal suburbs could see gusts near 70 kilometers per hour, and parts of Sydney, Canberra, and Melbourne could experience gusts exceeding 90 kilometers per hour.

A mild northerly airstream ahead of the front will hinder the 2026 snow season, particularly at lower elevations. Snow depth at Deep Creek, a key monitoring site, has struggled to form all winter, with only 61 centimeters of natural snow depth recorded as of Friday. The only comparable years at this time are 2020 and perhaps 1973.

However, higher elevations have fared better, with a snow depth of 61 centimeters reported at the top of Mount Hotham. The heaviest precipitation is expected to arrive across the alpine region on Sunday, with temperatures above zero, resulting in heavy rain. Snow is expected to retreat to higher peaks as temperatures warm throughout the day.

Lower and mid-level slopes may experience a severe loss of snow, while gale force winds combined with rain will create abhorrent skiing conditions. By Monday morning, heavy snow is expected to fall across all major resorts, with modeling suggesting at least 20 centimeters of snow in 24 hours, and some predictions reaching up to 40 centimeters.

While the storm's primary issue is the wind, the oncoming polar air mass will warm, leading to wet and heavy snow for lower slopes. The storm will not end after just one day, as another front will follow, potentially delivering another burst of 10 to 20 centimeters of snow on Tuesday and Wednesday. Altogether, this event could dump up to 50 centimeters of snow on the higher Alps, potentially setting the stage for the best conditions this season.