EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers eye a break above the 100-day SMA

The EUR/USD currency pair saw a slight increase on Friday, bolstered by a weaker U.S. Dollar (USD) due to traders cutting back on expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes after a disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The pair currently sits at approximately 1.1562, close to a seven-week peak. However, the movement has been limited within a narrow range for over a week, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) acting as a barrier to further upward price action.

Despite this, the short-term outlook remains optimistic, as dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) rate expectations and hopes for stability in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may keep the USD under pressure. The next major hurdle for EUR/USD is the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will offer insight into inflation trends.

From a technical standpoint, the 50-day SMA at 1.1471 serves as immediate support, with the psychological level of 1.1400 also in play. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, indicating positive momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bullish, suggesting that buyers hold the advantage as long as the price stays above the short-term average.

If the pair breaks above the 100-day SMA at 1.1568, the next major resistance levels to watch are the 1.1700 and 1.1800 horizontal barriers. These technical indicators are derived from the analysis of price movements using AI tools, providing traders with actionable insights.