China's exports jump 23% in July, beating estimates, as AI-driven shipments surge

China's exports surged by 23% in July, surpassing analysts' predictions, with the surge propelled by high-tech component demand. This marked a slight deceleration from June's impressive 27% growth, which was the fastest increase since October 2021. Meanwhile, imports expanded by 27.5%, aligning closely with Reuters estimates of 27.9%, but trailed behind June's 36% surge, the most substantial rise in five years.

The worldwide rollout of AI infrastructure has bolstered China's economy during a year of geopolitical tensions, maintaining growth despite subdued domestic consumption. Over the first seven months of the year, chip exports grew by 117% compared to the same period last year, accounting for more than 60% of total shipments, chiefly driven by demand for electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and wind power equipment.

U.S.-bound shipments increased around 17% year-over-year, outpacing June's 14% growth. Imports to the European Union decreased by 1%, while exports to the bloc increased by 16%. China's export surplus to the EU totaled $112.5 billion, exceeding forecasts of $107 billion, while narrowing from $125.6 billion in June. Trade surplus for the entire year exceeded $1 trillion, a contentious issue for China's trading partners, including the U.S. and the European Union.

Experts anticipate intense discussions between China and major trading partners in the coming months, particularly ahead of the anticipated U.S.-China summit in September and the EU-China economic relations meeting in October. Beijing's trade surplus has been a persistent thorn in relations, with officials urging China to shift towards a more consumption-led economy.

While China's government pledged support for the slowing economy through accelerated fiscal spending and monetary adjustments during a policy-setting meeting in late July, they did not announce specific measures to stimulate household spending. In Q2, China's economy contracted at its weakest pace since late 2022, with GDP growth at 4.3%.

Retail sales grew by 1% in June, a modest rebound from May's 0.6% decline. Consumer inflation decelerated to 1% from 1.2% in May, and factory-gate prices surged by 4.1%, the strongest growth since July 2022.