BN-PN blue wave can sweep 122 seats in GE16, says think tank

The Ilham Centre, a Malaysian think tank, projects that a potential collaboration between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) could result in capturing up to 122 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia for the next general election (GE16). This projection is based on the assumption that voting patterns observed in Negeri Sembilan, a traditionally BN stronghold, would spread throughout the country.

The think tank's executive director, Hisommudin Bakar, suggests that if the Malay-Muslim parties within the BN and PN coalitions—Umno and PAS—continue to support each other's candidates, they could seize seats previously won by Pakatan Harapan (PH). This projection would give BN-PN a 10-seat advantage over the required 112 seats for a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat, meaning they would have enough votes to form the next government.

However, this outcome hinges on grassroots acceptance of candidate transfers between the two parties. The projected swing seats are primarily in Malay-majority areas and urban semi-rural constituencies, where the balance of votes between PH and BN-PN could be close. If BN-PN secure these contested seats, particularly where Malay and non-Malay support is nearly evenly distributed, it could lead to a hung parliament being less likely.

Meanwhile, a senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Francis Hutchinson, stresses that the alliance's viability may be tested in states like Pahang, Perak, and Selangor, where BN and PN must divide a limited number of seats. Hutchinson points out that while urban Malays are more likely to favor BN-PN, non-Malay voters in mixed urban areas could play a decisive role, especially in constituencies where Malay voters constitute a smaller portion of the electorate.