AUD/USD Price Forecast: Flat lines below mid-0.7000s/100-SMA as bulls await US NFP

The AUD/USD currency pair finds support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and is currently trading around 0.7065, a level reached earlier this week. However, buying pressure has been difficult to come by amid ongoing geopolitical tensions that continue to bolster the US Dollar (USD) in the lead-up to the eagerly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Traders will be scrutinizing this employment data closely to gauge the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy stance. In the meantime, the Middle East situation is providing a tailwind for oil prices, reigniting inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, which may cap upside potential for the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical standpoint, the pair's inability to capitalize on this week's gains above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and its failure near the 50% Fibonacci level raises caution flags for bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 56, indicating moderate bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly positive.

Moreover, the AUD/USD price is trading comfortably above the 200-day SMA at 0.6923, suggesting broader downside support. Should the pair break below the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the psychologically significant 0.7000 mark, support could be found near the 23.6% level at 0.6966 and the 200-day SMA at 0.6923. Should short-term bearish pressure reemerge, the structural support near 0.6870 would likely serve as a more substantial medium-term base for AUD/USD.

On the upside, the pair faces resistance at the 100-day SMA at 0.7052, followed by the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 0.7074 and the 61.8% level at 0.7122, with higher resistance zones at 0.7190 and 0.7277.