Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?
Americans are moving less than they used to. Moving rates have declined steadily for decades, falling from close to 20 percent annually in the mid-1980s to below 10 percent by 2019. This decline has persisted through business cycles and has been evident across all regions, and has affected a broad range of demographic groups. Falling mobility matters because moving helps households access job…
A new study reveals that fewer renters are anticipating moving in the near future, with a significant drop in expected mobility over the past decade. According to data from the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations Housing Surveys, the percentage of renters who believe they will move within the next three years has plummeted from nearly 60% in 2014 to around 37% in 2026.
This decline in expected mobility contrasts with a similar decrease among homeowners, with their moving expectations falling from about 21% to 14% over the same period.
One of the key factors contributing to this trend is the reduced optimism among renters regarding their chances of ever owning a home. In the survey, renters who express a low probability of ever owning a home (0-20% chance) are much more likely to expect a move within three years, with a mean moving probability of approximately 25%.
In comparison, renters who are nearly certain they will own a home (81-100% chance) have a much higher moving probability of about 76%, a difference of over 50 percentage points. This correlation suggests that renters who do not expect to own a home in the future are also less likely to move in the near term.
The study highlights that falling mobility matters because moving helps households access job opportunities, adapt to changing circumstances, and improve their housing situations. As renters account for roughly a third of U.S. households, their declining expectations for future moves could have significant implications for housing markets and the overall economy.
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