Wars that redefine new world order

In August 2026, two nuclear-armed superpowers are engaged in military confrontations against non-nuclear-armed states. The United States is attempting to subdue Iran through bombing, while Russia continues a prolonged conflict with Ukraine, showing no signs of resolution. Notably, these wars differ significantly from previous conflicts.

Ukraine, backed by NATO members, particularly the United States, is experiencing a proxy war funded and supported by Western powers. Iran, on the other hand, receives indirect military assistance from China and Russia, according to international reports.

At press time, Russia has escalated retaliatory missile strikes on Ukraine, with heavy waves of ballistic missile and drone attacks hitting Kyiv and surrounding areas. President Trump is striving to force Iran into a peace deal on his terms, though his approach appears inconsistent. He orders attacks on Iran and then seeks peace talks.

The West Asia conflict has taken a turn the US did not anticipate. Initially, the Hormuz Strait remained open for international navigation, and global oil prices were low. However, five months into the Iran conflict, Trump aims to reopen this chokepoint to reduce oil prices. Unprovoked attacks on Iran have led to its closure.

Iran, fighting an asymmetric war, has utilized the Hormuz Strait as a strategic tool to escalate the conflict to an economic front. The US claims it has restarted negotiations with Iran, a claim Iran denies. Trump threatens "decapitating" Iran, while Netanyahu shares this vision. Both leaders seemed to believe that the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and relentless bombing would lead to a swift regime change in Tehran, inspiring anti-establishment Iranians to intensify their protests. However, they miscalculated Iran's resilience.

The US cannot continue attacking Iran indefinitely. Public support for Trump's war in the US is waning, and the country's missile stockpiles are rapidly depleting. Military analysts suggest that Washington's dependence on piloted bombing missions is increasing as missile stockpiles dwindle. The US midterm elections are approaching in November, and Republicans are expected to face losses under Trump's leadership.

A protracted Iran war could worsen the situation for the Trump administration. The US has reportedly exhausted nearly all its missile stockpile in five months of fighting Iran, including Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) assessment indicates that replenishing key systems like Tomahawk, THAAD, and Patriot would take years, while PrSM could be replenished in months.

Despite claims by Trump and Pentagon officials that there are sufficient munitions, doubts persist about the US's vulnerability under President Trump. Reports about dwindling missile stockpiles are being dismissed, leaving questions about why Trump has not pursued his threat of an all-out war against Iran. The outcome of the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran remains uncertain, but they have undeniably reshaped power dynamics in the post-Cold War era and are redefining the emerging global order.