US labour market stable; worker productivity accelerates in Q2

Unemployment claims in the U.S. increased slightly last week, while layoffs reached a two-year low in July, indicating a stable labour market, according to the latest data. Worker productivity in the second quarter surpassed expectations, helping to curb labour costs, allowing the Federal Reserve to focus on the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation.

Some experts believe the adoption of artificial intelligence by businesses may be driving productivity improvements. However, the central bank may still raise interest rates next month unless inflation improves. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 for the week ending August 1, below forecasts.

Despite a surge in early June, lay-offs have remained low, even with the ongoing oil price shock from the US-Israeli war. Layoffs in July dropped 27% to 33,429, the lowest level since July 2024, with announced layoffs falling 46% from a year ago. The number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid increased by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.801 million during the week ending July 25.

Nonfarm payrolls likely grew by 80,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate expected to stay at 4.2%. While productivity grew at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter, it has consistently increased at a 2.1% rate over the past three years.