Russia and Ukraine Are Mutually Shutting Down the Black Sea

Russia and Ukraine are currently blocking off the Black Sea trade routes, causing a new crisis reminiscent of the one that occurred between 2022 and 2023. During that period, Russia implemented a naval blockade, preventing Ukrainian ships from sailing in and out of their ports, which severely impacted global agricultural markets.

However, this year's situation is distinct in several ways. In the previous crisis, Russia maintained a blockade using warships, mines, and blockades, trapping millions of tons of Ukrainian grain, thereby triggering a global food crisis. This year, Russia is not imposing a physical blockade but rather attacking ships, their crews, and cargo directly.

Consequently, merchant vessels are hesitant to navigate the Black Sea due to the high financial risk involved, causing shipping freight costs to double. Ukraine's Black Sea ports, which handle about 90 percent of the country's agricultural exports and a significant portion of mining and steel products, are currently out of operation.

The agricultural sector in Ukraine is projected to lose between $1.5 billion and $3 billion this year due to the closure of these ports. Ukraine has urged the United Nations for assistance to safely facilitate maritime transit through the Black Sea, similar to what they achieved in 2022. Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of committing war crimes and economic terrorism over the attacks on merchant ships and grain terminals.

They argue that Russia is holding global food security hostage, drawing comparisons to the disruptions of energy routes in the Strait of Hormuz. However, this crisis differs from the previous one in key aspects. In 2022-2023, Russia imposed a classic blockade, blocking the entry and exit of Ukrainian and foreign ships. This time, Russia is targeting ships directly and harasing shipping, making the financial risk so great that vessels are not willing to make the trip.