Romania worries Russia may send more drones its way

Romania's New Strategy Center warns that Russia may launch a wave of jet-powered drones at the Reni-Galati area to isolate Ukraine economically, following a sharp deterioration in the Black Sea situation in July. Russian forces attacked over 30 merchant ships, with two vessels struck near Romania's border. The situation escalated further July 24-26 when Romanian air forces shot down three Russian kamikaze drones, one of which flew 200 kilometers into Romanian airspace before being destroyed.

Analysts predict that Moscow's next move could involve coordinated drone attacks on the Reni-Galati corridor, testing Romania's air defenses with multiple incoming drones from different directions. The Galati-Reni corridor is particularly vulnerable due to the short time available to intercept incoming drones. Russia's new Geran-5 drones, equipped with jet engines, can reach speeds up to 650 kilometers per hour, increasing the threat.

Additionally, Russia may carry out false flag operations using captured and refurbished Ukrainian drones to block the Danube River transport corridor, exacerbating the already dire situation. Attacks on vessels and ports near Odessa have already significantly impacted Ukraine's maritime grain exports, and the Danube's water levels are at their lowest since 1996, forcing barges to carry reduced cargo loads.

The New Strategy Center suggests that if provocations persist or escalate, Romania may invoke NATO's Article 4 to seek formal consultations with allies and request additional intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities.