How would NZ’s vital freight system handle a big earthquake? Our study sounds a warning
New research reveals a magnitude 8.5 earthquake is likely to trigger a cascade of problems for NZ’s freight networks. But how many are avoidable?
An extensive study has highlighted the fragility of New Zealand's freight system in the aftermath of a major earthquake, focusing on the Cook Strait ferry network as a critical component. This network, consisting of just four roll-on, roll-off ferries operated by Interislander and Bluebridge’s StraitNZ, connects State Highway 1 and the main rail corridor, facilitating more than 500 trucks a day and 5.5 million tonnes of freight annually.
The research investigates the impact of a hypothetical scenario where Wellington and Picton ferry terminals, alongside several ports, fuel facilities, and parts of the road and rail networks, are incapacitated for three months.
The study posits that the main disruption to the freight network would not stem from the natural disaster itself, but rather from pre-existing policy decisions. The ferry terminals, deemed aging infrastructure not built to modern resilience standards, would likely be the first to fail if struck by such a catastrophic event. In the absence of these terminals, finding alternative methods for transporting goods between islands would prove challenging.
While air freight could be utilized for urgent items like medicines and high-value products, it is expensive, has limited capacity, and faces current shortages of personnel. Coastal shipping, while more accessible, also faces constraints with limited spare capacity, vessels, containers, and trained personnel. This situation has been exacerbated by the recent termination of Pacifica's domestic service, leaving fewer options for coastal shipping.
The repercussions extend beyond transportation, affecting fuel supply chains, electronic payment systems, and telecommunications, which are essential for coordinating freight operations. If these critical infrastructures fail, the impact on the entire freight network would be profound. The research identifies 43 constraints, stemming from 99 cause-and-effect relationships, ultimately linking back to 18 root causes across six policy domains.
This indicates that the resilience of the freight system is not solely dependent on the speed of infrastructure repair post-disaster, but also on pre-existing policy frameworks. To enhance the system's resilience, the study recommends long-term investments in critical infrastructure, coastal shipping, redundancy in transport networks, and workforce development, alongside efficient resource consent processes for infrastructure expansion.
While natural disasters are inevitable and disruptive, the severity of their impact on freight movement can be mitigated by the decisions made beforehand.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — it may contain errors, so check the original before relying on it.
