Grattan on Friday: The battle for Victoria will send important signals to federal players

Victoria's upcoming election on November 28 is generating significant drama and importance, far beyond what was anticipated a year ago. A recent change of premier and Liberal leader, coupled with the strong performance of One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, have transformed the political landscape. National implications are growing, as voters tend to distinguish between federal and state choices.

If Jess Wilson, the state opposition leader, can secure victory, it could provide a much-needed boost to the Liberal party, which is currently struggling nationwide. However, if One Nation performs well, particularly in the upper house, its momentum nationally will likely continue, potentially worsening the crises faced by both the Liberals and the Nationals.

The battle between the right of centre parties – the Liberal National Coalition and One Nation – is crucial for the conservatives' chances of governing Victoria after the election. A minority Liberal-National Coalition victory would likely require One Nation's support for supply and confidence, although a formal coalition with One Nation seems unlikely.

Conversely, if Labor manages to secure a minority government, it could claim a "Scott-Morrison type miracle." The election is further complicated by the Labour brand's unpopularity, as highlighted by a recent report from the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC). The report exposed serious and concerning conduct by senior public officers during the negotiation of the CFA EBA, although no actual corruption was found.

Premier Ben Carroll condemned the behavior, which has given the opposition an advantage. In response, Labor appointed Carroll in an attempt to minimize losses, but his approach involves distancing himself from his predecessors and focusing on integrity. Carroll is open to amendments regarding Allan's work-from-home legislation and potentially toughening IBAC's powers.

Despite serving in both the Andrews and Allan governments, Carroll remains tied to the past as he tries to create a different future. However, his performance compared to his predecessors suggests he is making progress. The primary question remains: why didn't Labor appoint Carroll earlier? Factional numbers within the left-dominated caucus seem to be the answer.

Only when some on the left prioritized faction over faction did Carroll's appointment become possible. Carroll is Labor's third leader since the 2022 election, while Wilson is her party's third leader this term. A recent Redbridge poll, conducted after Labor's leadership change, shows the Coalition with 30%, Labor with 23%, One Nation with 22%, and the Greens with 14%, giving a two-party preferred vote of 57% for the Coalition to 43% for Labor.

In comparison, a Redbridge poll from June had the Coalition and Labor tied at 26%, with One Nation leading at 27%. While scandals are contributing to Labor's struggles, deeper issues persist, with voters still dealing with the aftermath of previous administrations.