Grading Jonathan Taylor's $44 million commitment to the Colts

Jonathan Taylor has emerged as a standout NFL running back, with his performance peaking in 2025 when he nearly reached 2,000 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns. However, his progress was hindered by injuries and a change in quarterbacks during the latter half of the season. The Indianapolis Colts have committed to Taylor with a two-year, $44 million extension, which includes a $39 million guarantee, the third-most guaranteed money among running backs outside their rookie contracts.

This deal makes Taylor the highest-guaranteed running back in the league, aside from his rookie deal and Jeremiyah Love's $53 million rookie contract. His annual average salary of $22 million ranks second only to Bijan Robinson, who signed a similar contract with the Colts. Taylor's raw stats are impressive, with over 3,000 rushing yards in the last two seasons and at least 20 handoffs in 38 of his 85 pro games.

He also boosted his receiving game in 2025, setting career highs in receptions, receiving yards, and yards after catch. However, advanced stats suggest that his performance may not be as elite as his raw numbers imply. Specifically, his total rushing yards over expected (RYOE) and yards per attempt (RYOE per attempt) are below average.

Despite this, Taylor has shown improvement in his strength and efficiency in recent seasons, with a notable increase in high-speed runs. The decision to sign Taylor to such a substantial contract will hinge on his availability and the Colts' success in the 2026 season. The team's recent history of "8/9 wins, no playoff" seasons suggests that they are willing to take on the risk of a high-guarantee contract in the hopes of securing a breakout performance from Taylor.

The deal's upside is that if Taylor lives up to his contract and the Colts remain competitive, he could become a valuable asset. However, the downside is that the contract is heavily concentrated, potentially making it difficult for the Colts to part ways with Taylor should his performance decline or a new general manager take over the team.

Thus, while the deal is a significant commitment, it comes with the potential for a high-caliber running back and the flexibility to re-sign Taylor in the future if he continues to deliver.