Tokayev’s Warning to Putin Was About More Than Ukraine
Kazakhstan tries to balance relations with Russia and other major powers. But the economic risk of the war meant the president had to speak out.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan publicly urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt the war in Ukraine during a speech in Omsk. This call came as a surprise, as Kazakhstan is one of Russia's closest allies and the two nations share a lengthy border. Kazakhstan's proximity to Russia is undeniable, given its extensive border spanning 7,644 kilometers.
Moreover, Kremlin critics and supporters alike have pointed to Kazakhstan's domestic policies and territorial claims as evidence of strained relations. However, Kazakhstani President Tokayev's decision to speak out against the war was not taken lightly. Given Kazakhstan's economic dependence on Russia, the country has few options but to maintain diplomatic ties with its eastern neighbor.
This delicate balance forced Tokayev to navigate between two challenging options: support for Russia or jeopardizing economic stability. The importance of Kazakhstan's oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) is a key factor in understanding Tokayev's stance. Approximately 80% of Kazakhstan's oil is transported via the CPC, a primary route for international oil companies from Europe and the United States.
Disruptions to this pipeline have forced Kazakhstan to reduce oil production, highlighting the nation's vulnerability to Russian actions. Despite this, Tokayev aimed to deliver a message to Putin that he knew would not be well-received. He employed a diplomatic strategy known as the "compliment sandwich," praising Russia first, then criticizing the ongoing war, and finally praising Putin again.
This tactic was designed to soften the blow of his criticism. In his speech, Tokayev acknowledged the importance of the war as a global issue, noting that energy transportation is a critical matter today. He also explicitly stated that Kazakhstan was not isolated from the conflict and had received signals from Europe and the United States regarding the situation.
By explicitly stating that the conflict is between two independent states, rather than a civil war, Tokayev challenged Putin's narrative denying Ukraine's sovereignty and distinct identity. Throughout his remarks, Tokayev emphasized Kazakhstan's respect for Ukrainian culture and people while criticizing the war. Ultimately, his speech demonstrated Tokayev's commitment to balancing Kazakhstan's national interests with diplomatic considerations, navigating the complex web of international relations between Kazakhstan, Russia, and other global powers.
Written by urgent.news from The Moscow Times - Opinion's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
